Don't Slip

The breadth of the downturn today is quite impressive. Being heavily long oil I am down somewhere between 3% and 4% today. Tomorrow will be an informative day but I don't see myself selling very much. We are about to turn the corner into earnings season in a bull market. I'm 20% cash with the ability to raise funds if the market chooses to fight me. Because the market isn't fighting me; it's fighting itself.

Depending on what tomorrow looks like I will consider allocating cash, probably in US refineries because that seems to be the unstoppable trade right now. Wouldn't look to hold beyond July though.

It's the climb

By looking at the monkeys on CNBC you could probably figure out that we are going up. What's left to do? Sell? Who wants to get short this market? What do you think institutional money mangers are thinking en masse? What is the economy doing?

I ignore the rhetoric in the media and focus on answering these questions.

This question I ask myself a lot when it comes to sourcing motivation around uncertain events. You can apply it to the bulls and bears if you wish.

Who's starvin' more?

Where do we go from here?

This Dow 12200 and NASDAQ 2700 is becoming old hat. It feels like we were over at a friends place for dinner, had some wine, played some cards or talked about old times. Now it's getting late and we're just talking for the sake of talking and nobody wants to be the first to get up and leave because maybe the night will get interesting again.

That is what this market is like. Nobody wants to drastically change their long/cash (if you're short, god be with you) positions for fear of missing out / overcommiting.
One side is stronger than the other; were headed higher, this party is gonna be an all nighter. It's just a matter of time.

You don't need fundamentals if you have psychology, and you don't need psychology if you're crazy.

Chit Chat

A convo I had with a friend today:

Me:
if only bank of america could stop bankrupting america


Him:
financials have to be your worst sector


Me:
i actually am about even
up marginally perhaps


Him:
disbelief


Me:
yes, from the very start
jan 08
i made 2 5000$ transfers
into us funds
and paid a horrendous 30$ a trade cause i was a noob
it has been solely long US financial equities since then
and i am at 2.80*3000 + 1200
which is what.. 9600
im down 400
4%
probably mostly transaction fees
thats the kind of stock wizardry i am wielding over here

Can't Go Wrong

Finally I know what it's like to be in a "Can't go wrong" market. I dare not touch my positions for fear of missing out of the next double digit jump. I speak in old tongues to myself when looking at my portfolio value. I think about ways to lever my leverage. I am 100% positive that I will see the peak coming far ahead of time and will perfectly time my exit like I am George Clooney robbing a Las Vegas casino. Invincibility is yesterday and inevitable is tomorrow.