TDG.TO
Disclaimer: I own it.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
BAC ATTACK
Get BAC here
BAC Off
BAC the truck up
BAC slap
Double bottom setup. Leverage is a must. I said it and I don't yet regret it.
BAC Off
BAC the truck up
BAC slap
Double bottom setup. Leverage is a must. I said it and I don't yet regret it.
Friday, November 26, 2010
I Suck
Dear Future Me,
I'm a crappy stockpicker. I only have 3 years of two-bit experience but my current efforts lead to crap picks. There is no denying it. Don't think it's just me either, because you suck at picking stocks too. Remember when you wrote this post? Why did you write it? Yeah, that's right, because you suck at picking stocks. Aside: I need to be repetitive to myself because I know future me won't get the point otherwise.
Now I'll give you some credit, you had good ideas, and some of them panned out, but the ones that did had an expensive opprotunity cost and the ones you didn't pull the trigger on did relatively amazing. This is not just 'the grass is always greener' syndrome. You messed up because you were a lazy-no-good stockpicker and were too cheap to pay the transactions costs of re-allocating, too lazy to get the proper approvals, and too scared that those costs and the work that went into the move would be all be in vain. It was fear of failure that held you back. Don't try and explain it any other way, because that is the simple truth. I hope you are better at correcting these problems in the future. For future, future me's sake.
I'm a crappy stockpicker. I only have 3 years of two-bit experience but my current efforts lead to crap picks. There is no denying it. Don't think it's just me either, because you suck at picking stocks too. Remember when you wrote this post? Why did you write it? Yeah, that's right, because you suck at picking stocks. Aside: I need to be repetitive to myself because I know future me won't get the point otherwise.
Now I'll give you some credit, you had good ideas, and some of them panned out, but the ones that did had an expensive opprotunity cost and the ones you didn't pull the trigger on did relatively amazing. This is not just 'the grass is always greener' syndrome. You messed up because you were a lazy-no-good stockpicker and were too cheap to pay the transactions costs of re-allocating, too lazy to get the proper approvals, and too scared that those costs and the work that went into the move would be all be in vain. It was fear of failure that held you back. Don't try and explain it any other way, because that is the simple truth. I hope you are better at correcting these problems in the future. For future, future me's sake.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Do What?
No more than one minute ago I had this gem of an idea. I give it here freely so that I might chuckle to myself in the future.
Buy things nobody understands.
Just that. That simple. The exact opposite of buying something that I completely understand is buying something that all or most people do not understand.
Buy things nobody understands.
Just that. That simple. The exact opposite of buying something that I completely understand is buying something that all or most people do not understand.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Party Time
I post so infrequently because most of the time I just don't have anything to say. I don't invest on a day to day basis. My opinions are home-brewed or slow-cooked, if you will. Right now I see equities going up in 2011, maybe even 2012, breaking previous highs. 15% of my portfolio is levered to the gills in BAC. I think The Fly said it best when he coined the phrase "BAC attack". I'm long an oil driller in TSE:TDG and my other energy play is NYSE:NRG. Shipping and transportation is another area I see to be a strong levered play in this bull market, however I took the scenic route with TSE:CJT.UN, a Canadian airfreight company. Throw in a little TSE:FFH to hold down the fort and I got myself a bona-fide portfolio. Excuse me while I generate excess returns.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
2008 Again
Mmmm.. this meltdown in BAC is reminiscent of a time when Citi was a bargain at $26 a share. You gotta be a masochist to buy US financials. Here comes the pain train. Choo Choooo
Monday, October 18, 2010
Stubborn
I am levering up on BAC here via buying at the money calls. Overall allocation to my BAC position will decrease as I intend to sell my equity position and use 80% of the proceeds to purchase 2012 calls. As long as the economy continues to recover slowly, it is my belief that as BAC was 'too big to fail' it will be 'too big not to succeed'.
My thought process for this trade:
I don't believe the stock can stay in the $10-15 range for 2011. If BAC is lower than $10 a share in 2012 then we are most likely headed for the next wave of equity apocalypse and buying opportunies shall be had. Else, the world ends and money is the least of my concern.
There are many reasonable cases in which I lose my entire position. But I think the odds and the upside is there.
My thought process for this trade:
I don't believe the stock can stay in the $10-15 range for 2011. If BAC is lower than $10 a share in 2012 then we are most likely headed for the next wave of equity apocalypse and buying opportunies shall be had. Else, the world ends and money is the least of my concern.
There are many reasonable cases in which I lose my entire position. But I think the odds and the upside is there.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Come and get it
So much for waiting for a pullback. This rally left a bad taste in my mouth last week but now that I am on to my second helping I am starting to get used to it. Luckily for me Faifax hasn't followed suit so I am going to start buying. Now is a good time to mention I'm not a professional; don't follow my advice unless you are willing to see the potential downside.
If I was a wild speculator, with earnings coming out on the 25th and a up to 10% share buyback program initiated recently , AND the recent resistance both above and below the 400-420 range, I might present a 'calm before the storm' argument for this position.
If I was a fundamentalist, I'd see a track record of 15%+ ROE, a great management team in a solid industry, and a trailing PE multiple of 6. Can't complain about that.
If I was a wild speculator, with earnings coming out on the 25th and a up to 10% share buyback program initiated recently , AND the recent resistance both above and below the 400-420 range, I might present a 'calm before the storm' argument for this position.
If I was a fundamentalist, I'd see a track record of 15%+ ROE, a great management team in a solid industry, and a trailing PE multiple of 6. Can't complain about that.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Correlation
Correlation has been a hot topic over the past decade, wouldn't you agree? Academics are hootin'-n-hollerin' about how correlations shoot up to 1 in times of panic. Delta, gamma, vega, etc.. - neutral portfolios are all based on some form of correlation. Quants are using ever more complex copula functions to model changing correlations. But here's the rub. Anyone that knows how to play rock paper scissors can understand a copula. I'll demonstrate with an example.
A few years ago I was investing money I couldn't afford to lose (because I don't listen to rules until I know how much breaking them costs me). Anyway, at the time, I figured it this way: I'm a long only investor so if I lose my bank loan on stocks that means the economy is really in the dumps. If I lose it ALL that means the stock market has been halted and money is no longer my primary concern.
You see? I understood that a dramatic change in the stock market is going to change how the stock market changes my net worth. I used the verb change in that sentence twice to give you the sense of derivation.
"And if you don't know, now you know.." - Biggie
A few years ago I was investing money I couldn't afford to lose (because I don't listen to rules until I know how much breaking them costs me). Anyway, at the time, I figured it this way: I'm a long only investor so if I lose my bank loan on stocks that means the economy is really in the dumps. If I lose it ALL that means the stock market has been halted and money is no longer my primary concern.
You see? I understood that a dramatic change in the stock market is going to change how the stock market changes my net worth. I used the verb change in that sentence twice to give you the sense of derivation.
"And if you don't know, now you know.." - Biggie
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Be Lazy
Because I sure am. Everyone is always saying, do your own homework, do your own research, etc. I think the idea there is that you will eventually come across a rare investment idea or thesis that you will be able to capitalize on. This is where I start to believe there is more than one way to skin a cat.
These days, there is so much valuable commentary (and exponentially more bullshit that must be ignored of course..) that I do believe, when appropriately synthesized, can generate excess market returns without additional risk. If you wanted to call it something so you could look cool to your friends you'd probably head to the first greek letter.
Enough baffoonery. Now obviously this synthesis process requires you not to be lazy and among other things have an excellent memory, vigiliance, and a feel for what information to filter out. This is a top-down approach, except that, instead of doing the time intensive micro research we take a leap of faith.
More on the justification of this 'bottom jump' in the future.
These days, there is so much valuable commentary (and exponentially more bullshit that must be ignored of course..) that I do believe, when appropriately synthesized, can generate excess market returns without additional risk. If you wanted to call it something so you could look cool to your friends you'd probably head to the first greek letter.
Enough baffoonery. Now obviously this synthesis process requires you not to be lazy and among other things have an excellent memory, vigiliance, and a feel for what information to filter out. This is a top-down approach, except that, instead of doing the time intensive micro research we take a leap of faith.
More on the justification of this 'bottom jump' in the future.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
What Now?
I have never been more unsure of where the market is going. I really don't have a clue. I'm 50% long, 50% cash right now, and looking to sell some of my small caps if the price is right. I can see this market going either way and thus I am not doing anything besides trying to get back to neutral. It's hard to sit on my hands (and on the opprotunity cost of the cash) but there is too much uncertainty behind the skewness of being long and short. What I mean is I could get my face ripped off either way in this market. I will either move to 75+% cash or start hedging my positions. I want to do this because regardless of the macro move in the market, October will probably be a down month, and I want to be able to grab a little alpha in Nov-Dec from the tax sellers.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
What Money?
As much as I want to have vast amounts of paper currency at my disposal, money is just an indulgence to me. I called this blog 'wanna be investor' for a reason.
Money, wealth, riches, material objects etc. are much too easily lost by simple chance. I lose sight of this fact too often.
Money, wealth, riches, material objects etc. are much too easily lost by simple chance. I lose sight of this fact too often.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
51st Percentile
Who would have thought blackjack could be so educating. Over the last week I've been learning to play blackjack and some elementary card counting systems. Under normal circumstances you are no more than 50 basis points away from winning 50% of your hands playing standard casino blackjack. If you employ some kind of tracking you can usually get up 2-3% at least every 1 in 10 hands. I make minor errors so I conservatively put myself at an overall advantage of 51%.
What has amazed me in my short amount of play testing is how much of an advantage that is. Betting heavily when the odds are only slightly in your favour Actually can be a lucrative venture. I was always sceptical that to experience large gains one had to trade or bet on high probability events. That is not necessarily the case.
What has amazed me in my short amount of play testing is how much of an advantage that is. Betting heavily when the odds are only slightly in your favour Actually can be a lucrative venture. I was always sceptical that to experience large gains one had to trade or bet on high probability events. That is not necessarily the case.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Skewness
My 100th post on this desolate wasteland of a blog.
The concept of skewness can be thrown in with the cliche bunch "easy to learn, hard to master". It is important because it is the pitfall of every losing investor. On the micro level, people aren't as stupid and everyone portrays. Random retail investors, such as myself, probably do a decent job of picking winners. The problem is when we come across a loser. Like our first love, we just can't come to terms with letting go. This creates negative skewness in our portfolio position returns. It is why successful investors and traders commonly preach to cut losses short, no more than 10% if possible, at all times. That way you defeat negative skewness.
I've been learning to count cards a bit so I can put up a fight at the blackjack tables, it's the same mindset walking into a casino and logging in to your brokerage account. Something to keep in mind.
The concept of skewness can be thrown in with the cliche bunch "easy to learn, hard to master". It is important because it is the pitfall of every losing investor. On the micro level, people aren't as stupid and everyone portrays. Random retail investors, such as myself, probably do a decent job of picking winners. The problem is when we come across a loser. Like our first love, we just can't come to terms with letting go. This creates negative skewness in our portfolio position returns. It is why successful investors and traders commonly preach to cut losses short, no more than 10% if possible, at all times. That way you defeat negative skewness.
I've been learning to count cards a bit so I can put up a fight at the blackjack tables, it's the same mindset walking into a casino and logging in to your brokerage account. Something to keep in mind.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Shadows
CJT.UN
TDG
BAC
I have roughly equal long positions in these 3 currently. They are all showing good resistance here. I am especially pleased with TDG given that oil is lower, it feels like buyers see this as an opprotunity. I am holding my positions despite the risk of a drop because it still feel like buyers lurk below. Unlike late 2008 - early 2009.
TDG
BAC
I have roughly equal long positions in these 3 currently. They are all showing good resistance here. I am especially pleased with TDG given that oil is lower, it feels like buyers see this as an opprotunity. I am holding my positions despite the risk of a drop because it still feel like buyers lurk below. Unlike late 2008 - early 2009.
Psalms 23:4 Yea though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I will fear no evil
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Screens
With the hostile Potash bid this week and Jim Rogers constantly talking about commodities and holding 'real' assets I'm starting to think there is potential here.
Agriculture is looking more and more like it is (or even better, soon will be) a leading sector.
I'm looking at smaller caps like FOS that could blow up.. haven't found much.. yet.
Agriculture is looking more and more like it is (or even better, soon will be) a leading sector.
I'm looking at smaller caps like FOS that could blow up.. haven't found much.. yet.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Rating Agencies
It's nice to be small and not worry about the politics of posts.
After meeting several Moody's employees, reading about them, and most importantly playing with and understanding their models and rating methodologies I have formed a terrible opinion of rating agencies as a whole. If it could be helped I wouldn't trust them with a dime of my money.
The good news is that wise investors know this already.
After meeting several Moody's employees, reading about them, and most importantly playing with and understanding their models and rating methodologies I have formed a terrible opinion of rating agencies as a whole. If it could be helped I wouldn't trust them with a dime of my money.
The good news is that wise investors know this already.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Monday
I don't have the creativity for a catchy title at the moment. I only have a similar forecast to The Fly.
The equities market will rally into September and then start falling, possibly off a cliff. As long as this prophecy remains likely I am planning on being 50%+ cash by September 3rd.
Current position: 75% long (BAC, CJT.UN.TO, TDG.TO) , 25% cash
The equities market will rally into September and then start falling, possibly off a cliff. As long as this prophecy remains likely I am planning on being 50%+ cash by September 3rd.
Current position: 75% long (BAC, CJT.UN.TO, TDG.TO) , 25% cash
Friday, August 13, 2010
Money Managers
If I was managing a larger portfolio, say 10MM+, I think the investment decisions would be much easier.
I see two slam dunks right now: getting long FFH and short bonds via whatever method you choose. These plays have little room to go down in value and potential to produce 100% returns over 3 years.
However, just because the investment decisions are easy doesn't mean the job is.
I see two slam dunks right now: getting long FFH and short bonds via whatever method you choose. These plays have little room to go down in value and potential to produce 100% returns over 3 years.
However, just because the investment decisions are easy doesn't mean the job is.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Metamorphisis
When you think about how to make money for long enough, you start thinking differently.
Your brain stops working to live and starts living to work. And you like it.
Your brain stops working to live and starts living to work. And you like it.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Read
I've been meaning to boost the amount of blogs and columnists I follow on these here internets, right now I'm only really following these two:
ibankcoin.com : the guy who runs this site is a highly intelligent nut-job and I find him to be a hilarious and great writer. I might one day hunt this man down to shake his hand and/or become an understudy.
gregspeicher.com : great value investor site. period.
I've been too busy reading books; just finished 'the big short' by michael lewis and am now reading his 'liar's poker'. Also read 'the quants' which I liked too. It's all just flavour.
ibankcoin.com : the guy who runs this site is a highly intelligent nut-job and I find him to be a hilarious and great writer. I might one day hunt this man down to shake his hand and/or become an understudy.
gregspeicher.com : great value investor site. period.
I've been too busy reading books; just finished 'the big short' by michael lewis and am now reading his 'liar's poker'. Also read 'the quants' which I liked too. It's all just flavour.
Monday, July 26, 2010
BitterSweet
Without the bitter, please.
I tell you when I'm getting my head taken off via losing money I previously couldn't afford to, so now let me introduce you to my winning side.
Go ahead and pull up SMT.TO's chart for the day. Blam, +75%, thankyouverymuch. I have 25% of my portfolio in that stock currently.
It's about goddam time.
I tell you when I'm getting my head taken off via losing money I previously couldn't afford to, so now let me introduce you to my winning side.
Go ahead and pull up SMT.TO's chart for the day. Blam, +75%, thankyouverymuch. I have 25% of my portfolio in that stock currently.
It's about goddam time.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Let's do the damn thang
7 down days followed by a neutral day and now this face-melter of a rally? You don't have to be a quant to say that there's a greater than 50% chance we're going up tomorrow.
That being said the flip side of the unfair coin is probably a red day looking equal and opposite to today. I remain long and strong.
That being said the flip side of the unfair coin is probably a red day looking equal and opposite to today. I remain long and strong.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Long and Strong
I'm holding longs through this downturn for better or worse now. I have no fear of my portfolio going straight to 0, I welcome it because I will find ways to bank it all back if that is the case. Crisis = Danger + Opportunity.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Trader's Paradise
So I'm working at this proprietary trading firm right now, and not to be some snooty fresh-outta-school graduate but, this place is a joke. The average stay of an "employee" is less than 2 weeks. People get dropped like bad habits around this joint. It's basically a big empty room with some desks and computers to trade on. The turkey before me left his seat warm for me.
Anyway the important thing is that besides showing all signs of being an unprofitable shithole I now have access to level II stock quotes in real time. If you haven't seen level II quotes in action it is quite the experience to be able to see all the moving parts in each stock's market.
I talked to Prem Watsa at my graduation, told him I'm coming to work for Fairfax in 5 years. He thought I was joking until I showed up in 2015.
Until then I'm going to work at in an investment research group to continue learning... always learning, or in german, immer lernen. Until I'm not, and when I'm done learning you better believe someone is gonna get taught.
Anyway the important thing is that besides showing all signs of being an unprofitable shithole I now have access to level II stock quotes in real time. If you haven't seen level II quotes in action it is quite the experience to be able to see all the moving parts in each stock's market.
I talked to Prem Watsa at my graduation, told him I'm coming to work for Fairfax in 5 years. He thought I was joking until I showed up in 2015.
Until then I'm going to work at in an investment research group to continue learning... always learning, or in german, immer lernen. Until I'm not, and when I'm done learning you better believe someone is gonna get taught.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Bounce with me
This market is going up short term, I'm hoping until the end of June because that's what it's going to take for my small cap stocks to grab on to this rally.
I'm betting on higher prices soon, then I'm gonna cut and run.
I'm betting on higher prices soon, then I'm gonna cut and run.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Get the hell out
My orders are placed to liquidate my long term stocks. I'm not going to sit back and watch the market strip me of my wallet and sanity if the Dow decides to print 5000 in the next few years. I'm taking my money out and investing it in something I actually have faith in: myself.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
What am I doing?
This market over the last month has kicked the proverbial shit outta me. I started moving to cash last week with intents to buy back into this great bull market that we are supposed to be starting. Instead, I now find myself wanting to move from 40% cash to 100% and figure out what the hell is going on.
This has either been a long and gypsy bear market rally or a short and nasty bull market drop. To be quite frank, I don't care to bet the farm on finding out.
With uncertainty like this in the markets, its time to start abusing the size of my small account to get in and get out.
This has either been a long and gypsy bear market rally or a short and nasty bull market drop. To be quite frank, I don't care to bet the farm on finding out.
STRATEGY CHANGE UP:
Long-only && long term
to
Wherever I can get a read && very short term
With uncertainty like this in the markets, its time to start abusing the size of my small account to get in and get out.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Full Disclosure
I lost all of my gains from 2010 due to a horrendous trade via USD/CAD last Thursday. I was short USD at 1.04 and was stopped out at just below 1.07 due to the intra-day madness. Besides the obvious lesson of setting tighter stops or being willing to hold on to a position to the bitter end I'm currently struggling to learn what I can from this loss.
I definitely lost control of my emotions more than I should have or thought I would have if I knew it was coming. Pleased; I am not.
I definitely lost control of my emotions more than I should have or thought I would have if I knew it was coming. Pleased; I am not.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Let's get it poppin'
I've been offered a contract at a trading firm to see if I can cut the mustard. Whether I can or I can not I will learn and increase my mental wealth.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Done
When you finish school or when you finished school, you wanted to listen to this song while sipping your favourite beverage.
If you ain't livin' you dyin
If you ain't livin' you dyin
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Quick Note
How you liking that USD/CAD short now? A good time to take profits at parity, not all of course. I am cautious of a large pullback here as the equity markets seem to be creeping upward like a protagonist walking down a dark hallway in a horror film.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Price Action
That's pretty much all that I have been paying attention to in the markets lately. Which way is the price moving, how fast, and by how much. Stocks and currencies. Mainly currencies, mainly USD/CAD.
If the slave drivers at my university would stop slapping my face off with work I would be able to leave with my education in peace and pay more attention to investing.
Until I get my face back. Good day.
If the slave drivers at my university would stop slapping my face off with work I would be able to leave with my education in peace and pay more attention to investing.
Until I get my face back. Good day.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Absent
That is what I have been from the fantastic world of stocks lately. I was and am still long various small cap canadian industrials and cyclicals with a side of bank of america dressed with a short USD position. That is the meat and potatoes, if you will, of my portfolio.
If the participants in this wacky market were a herd of sheep we would be a restless herd by now. We are tired of this range we have been kept in and can almost smell the bollinger bands tightening. Our anticipation for a move is growing, with anticipation comes fear, with fear comes selling.
I move back and forth through analogs and reality like federer and nadal playing for the cup.
Restless indeed.
If the participants in this wacky market were a herd of sheep we would be a restless herd by now. We are tired of this range we have been kept in and can almost smell the bollinger bands tightening. Our anticipation for a move is growing, with anticipation comes fear, with fear comes selling.
I move back and forth through analogs and reality like federer and nadal playing for the cup.
Restless indeed.
Friday, February 26, 2010
All Ears
You shouldn't trust anyone that thinks they know something 100%. When I give people advice about anything I'm careful to convey that possibility that I very well could be wrong and not know it. I strongly dislike people that claim there is a single best way to do or think about something.
The power that the written word has is often beyond what it deserves. Authors are people and people gets things wrong on a regular basis. You either have to have quite the ego or don't care how you are perceived to be brazen enough to tell others how to live their lives or manage their money.
FYI I'm including myself somewhere in there.
The power that the written word has is often beyond what it deserves. Authors are people and people gets things wrong on a regular basis. You either have to have quite the ego or don't care how you are perceived to be brazen enough to tell others how to live their lives or manage their money.
FYI I'm including myself somewhere in there.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
It's not what you know
It's who you follow.
Today there is more information flying around the world than ever before. This leads me to believe that now more than ever it is important to filter through all of the data analysis and recommendations.
I am a firm believer that the integrity of the data is more important than the data itself. The Medium Is The Message kind of philosophy.
Finding sources for information you believe in is at least as important as the information itself. Why would I do equity and currency research and analysis myself when someone has already done it and it is just waiting to be found.
Today there is more information flying around the world than ever before. This leads me to believe that now more than ever it is important to filter through all of the data analysis and recommendations.
I am a firm believer that the integrity of the data is more important than the data itself. The Medium Is The Message kind of philosophy.
Finding sources for information you believe in is at least as important as the information itself. Why would I do equity and currency research and analysis myself when someone has already done it and it is just waiting to be found.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Update
USD/CAD Down of course. Told you so. I exited half of my short position over the USD here as a chance to take profits. I'm probably going to re-enter if the pair trades above 1.055 maybe even above 1.05 if a reversal looks clear.
BAC back at $16. Wish I had bought some $15 calls when it was trading at 14-14.50. If it ranges back down there I will look to do so.
Thinking about the slight possibility of a massive downturn in 2010 it might be a good idea to purchase some insurance via way-out-of-the-money puts on some big names due in Jan 2011 or 2012.
BAC back at $16. Wish I had bought some $15 calls when it was trading at 14-14.50. If it ranges back down there I will look to do so.
Thinking about the slight possibility of a massive downturn in 2010 it might be a good idea to purchase some insurance via way-out-of-the-money puts on some big names due in Jan 2011 or 2012.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Open Sesame
I wish the markets had been open today (yesterday now I guess..).
Since I need to build up some street cred I'm going to throw it out there that CJT.UN is going up soon. Ya feel me?
Coming in second in terms of certainty; the USD is going down down down down down. Yes, like the chris brown song. Maybe not against the Euro because they still have silly countries going bankrupt over there, but against the CAD. Think of it as a commodities play if you're looking to justify going long CAD.
I got rocked on my natural gas play. I had a nice double down that saved me from a large loss, but I still lost -25% on one position in HNU.TO. Let that be a lesson to me my friends. Double ETFs are Satan reincarnated into equity form. If you don't believe me go buy one.
Since I need to build up some street cred I'm going to throw it out there that CJT.UN is going up soon. Ya feel me?
Coming in second in terms of certainty; the USD is going down down down down down. Yes, like the chris brown song. Maybe not against the Euro because they still have silly countries going bankrupt over there, but against the CAD. Think of it as a commodities play if you're looking to justify going long CAD.
I got rocked on my natural gas play. I had a nice double down that saved me from a large loss, but I still lost -25% on one position in HNU.TO. Let that be a lesson to me my friends. Double ETFs are Satan reincarnated into equity form. If you don't believe me go buy one.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Paper Money
Currencies are a fickle bunch. A trader's dream, most definitely. The amount of leverage and liquidity available to a retail investor is outstanding and unrivaled.
Being a Canadian and needing to access the US for the plethora of publicly traded companies there I needed a foreign exchange account to hedge myself against an unprecendented drop in value of the greenback.
I've found lately that shorting the USD/CAD pair has been childsplay for banking coin. The 500 pip jump this week in the pair was a kick in the pants but you know how much I like to add to trades when they start losing. I'm shorting that pair back into the depths of 1.02 if it costs me my account. Have no fear, I have less than 5% of my investing capital in forex. I'm not That crazy. I just think it's a good trade.
And just so you know I ain't playin'
Being a Canadian and needing to access the US for the plethora of publicly traded companies there I needed a foreign exchange account to hedge myself against an unprecendented drop in value of the greenback.
I've found lately that shorting the USD/CAD pair has been childsplay for banking coin. The 500 pip jump this week in the pair was a kick in the pants but you know how much I like to add to trades when they start losing. I'm shorting that pair back into the depths of 1.02 if it costs me my account. Have no fear, I have less than 5% of my investing capital in forex. I'm not That crazy. I just think it's a good trade.
And just so you know I ain't playin'
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Dippin'
The market has taken a nice little break from galloping higher. I fortunately sold out of a couple of shorter term positions for 10-27% gains last week. My small caps stocks are holding up well in this, sometimes breaking down below because someone wants out. I'm going to start providing those who want out and are willing to offer around a 5% discount the liquidity they are after.
I've already turned around TSE:GDL from 11 to 11.70 inside two trading days. There is money to be made long here. Try and remember that.
I've already turned around TSE:GDL from 11 to 11.70 inside two trading days. There is money to be made long here. Try and remember that.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Citi Earnings
I'm not a trader per se but I pay attention to short term action in my stocks. I do this for two reasons:
1) To learn how to profit from timing the market (There is money to be made with timing, especially for small investors)
2) To better understand how the stocks I own and am interested in act given a particular event or move in the overall market.
Let me take you through the price action BAC this morning.
Citi reported a 33 cent loss for the quarter this morning sending US financials lower. My position in Bank of America was down after this announcement about 3% and is now down a little less than 1%.
The recovery in BAC's price is bullish. Investors looked at the dip as a buying opprotunity because they think that, relative to Citi, BAC will report better earnings for the quarter and/or for the year and furtehr in the future. They probably think this because Citi receive's 68% of it's revenue overseas where the recovery hasn't necessarily been as dramatic and Citi is not a large deposit bank like BAC. I am of the same opinion, for those reasons and more.
The point is that long term investors in BAC (such as myself) are waiting for it to distinguish itself by relatively outperforming the likes of Citi and returning to a price range similar to WFC and MS ($25-$35). Of course I haven't a clue as to how soon that will happen.
1) To learn how to profit from timing the market (There is money to be made with timing, especially for small investors)
2) To better understand how the stocks I own and am interested in act given a particular event or move in the overall market.
Let me take you through the price action BAC this morning.
Citi reported a 33 cent loss for the quarter this morning sending US financials lower. My position in Bank of America was down after this announcement about 3% and is now down a little less than 1%.
The recovery in BAC's price is bullish. Investors looked at the dip as a buying opprotunity because they think that, relative to Citi, BAC will report better earnings for the quarter and/or for the year and furtehr in the future. They probably think this because Citi receive's 68% of it's revenue overseas where the recovery hasn't necessarily been as dramatic and Citi is not a large deposit bank like BAC. I am of the same opinion, for those reasons and more.
The point is that long term investors in BAC (such as myself) are waiting for it to distinguish itself by relatively outperforming the likes of Citi and returning to a price range similar to WFC and MS ($25-$35). Of course I haven't a clue as to how soon that will happen.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Stocks
I take a lot of things for granted. I come on this stupid blog I made to smack my keyboard around a bit as well as jot down some ideas I have.
I must have mentioned in the past that I am, thus far, a Long Only investor. I don't talk a lot about my precise returns because exact numbers bore me. That being said, how do you think a Long Only investor has been doing lately?
Just fine, thank you very much.
I must have mentioned in the past that I am, thus far, a Long Only investor. I don't talk a lot about my precise returns because exact numbers bore me. That being said, how do you think a Long Only investor has been doing lately?
Just fine, thank you very much.
Commodities
Does anyone know what moves the price of commodities? Did you see what speculation did to the price of oil? How can a commodity be that mispriced and not make you question the intrinsic value of all commodities?
Go get your farmer's almanac and make some money.
Go get your farmer's almanac and make some money.
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